Electoral Prospects and Political Governance in Haiti: An Uncertain Transition Facing the Security Challenge

More than four years after the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, Haiti remains plunged into a political transition without a clear direction. The country, deprived of elected institutions since January 2023, lives under an exceptional regime marked by the absence of a Parliament, local elected officials, and a legitimate presidency. In this context of institutional vacuum and security crisis, the question of elections and transitional governance remains at the heart of national and international debate. A Political Transition Still Seeking Legitimacy The Transitional Presidential Council (CPT), established in 2024 to succeed Prime Minister Ariel Henry, still struggles to convince, a few months before its mandate expires. Although its mandate was clear: restore security, rebuild trust, and lead the country towards credible elections. Internal divisions, divergent political interests, and public distrust have greatly weakened this collegial structure. Many Haitians perceive the transition as a political arrangement rather than a genuine process of national refoundation. Elections Promised, But Uncertain Officially, the Presidential Council has expressed its will to organize general elections in 2026, based on potentially met minimal security conditions. An electoral calendar was to be announced to set the Haitian electoral machine in motion. However, the realities on the ground make this prospect fragile: part of the territory remains under the control of armed gangs, electoral institutions are not yet fully reconstituted, and the logistics of a national election seem almost unfeasible today. Widespread insecurity, with thousands of internally displaced persons and cut-off roads, prevents any normal political activity. In several cities across the country, the state is practically absent, which compromises the establishment of an inclusive and transparent electoral process. Security, a Prerequisite for Stable Governance The link between governance and security is now more evident than ever. Without a minimum of stability, no election can be held transparently or guarantee public participation. Recent gang offensives in Port-au-Prince and Artibonite show that the security efforts of the government and the national police remain limited. The strengthening of the Haitian National Police (PNH), the reorganization of the Haitian Armed Forces (FAd’H), and international cooperation are therefore indispensable prerequisites. But beyond the military response, a whole territorial governance strategy needs to be rethought: empowering local institutions to act, rebuilding trust between authorities and citizens, and engaging in sincere political dialogue about the country's future. A Transition at a Crossroads Haiti is at a pivotal moment. Either the transition manages to lay the groundwork for a credible and inclusive electoral process, or the country risks plunging into even deeper instability. The challenge is not only to organize elections but to guarantee their credibility, citizen participation, and security. Without this, the future government resulting from the polls risks suffering from the same legitimacy crisis as its predecessors. The international community observes, but it is primarily up to Haitian actors – political, economic, and social – to find the means for lasting democratic reconstruction. Between electoral promises and security urgency, Haiti is playing a decisive part in its future.