Haitian Crisis: Is the Harmonization of Political Agreements Still Possible?

Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, the Haitian political scene has been fragmented between competing initiatives, partial agreements, and aborted transition attempts. While the Transitional Presidential Council (CPT), established in 2024, is now facing strong criticism, many voices are rising to call for a harmonization of the various political proposals with a view to a lasting resolution of the crisis. But is this convergence possible? And under what conditions? The current transition is based on an accumulation of texts and commitments from political groups and civil society actors with diverse orientations. The Agreement of December 21, 2022, between former Prime Minister Ariel Henry and certain sociopolitical forces, aimed at forming an expanded transitional government and holding elections in 2023 – a deadline that was never met. For its part, the Montana Agreement, launched in 2021, advocates a break-away approach, with a transition led by civil society and a bicameral executive. From these groups, the Agreement of April 3, 2024, was born, which led to the creation of the CPT, composed of nine members. However, this structure currently suffers from a glaring lack of legitimacy and effectiveness. In addition to these texts, there is a multitude of political, social, and civic initiatives, supported by parties like EDE, intellectuals, and international recommendations from the OAS, CARICOM, or the UN. The result is a veritable political cacophony, marked by mistrust, competition, and the absence of a common vision. Towards Harmonization Under Regional Mediation? Faced with this fragmentation, CARICOM, through its Group of Eminent Persons, has been striving since 2023 to create a dialogue platform capable of bringing together the different camps. The meeting of July 1, 2025, which brought together the signatories of the main agreements as well as representatives of the CPT, opened an encouraging prospect. Proposals have been put forward to make convergence possible: a reduction or recomposition of the CPT, making it more representative and effective; the creation of a broad-consensus government, based on common principles drawn from the various existing texts; and the definition of an inclusive electoral calendar, taking into account both the demands for a break advocated by Montana, the principles of inclusion from the April 3 Agreement, and the institutional sequencing proposed in the December 21 Agreement. It is no longer a matter of prioritizing one agreement over others, but rather of identifying compatible elements to build a foundation of compromise. Regional mediation is thus essential as a neutral and structured framework, capable of ensuring a balance between sensitivities and preventing the exclusion of certain voices. Conditions for Possible Convergence The harmonization of political proposals is conceivable, provided certain prerequisites are met. First, it requires sincere political will from local actors. Without a clear willingness to overcome partisan interests, any attempt at synthesis risks remaining a dead letter. Next, this convergence presupposes a credible, structured negotiation space, recognized by all. CARICOM's role could be decisive, provided its intervention is respected and accepted by all groups. Furthermore, it is crucial to exclude individuals involved in corruption cases or linked to armed groups, in order to restore public trust in the process. Harmonization also requires alignment around clear and concrete objectives, such as the restoration of security, the return to constitutional order, the resumption of public services, and the organization of credible elections. Finally, no lasting solution can emerge without the active inclusion of civil society, youth, women, and territories often marginalized from the political process. The Risk of Failure: Lasting Chaos In the absence of a harmonized agreement, the transition process risks sinking into prolonged stagnation. The CPT, already weakened, could find itself isolated, while the electoral deadline would remain out of reach. The current political fragmentation opens the way to worrying scenarios: the rise of gangs, the resurgence of disguised authoritarianism, or the collapse of remaining institutions. International support, too, could erode in the face of a lack of concrete results, exacerbating the country's isolation. Building a Common Political Foundation The harmonization of political agreements and proposals is not a utopia. However, it requires a rigorous method, legitimate mediation, and above all, a collective will to save what is essential. While divergences are real, points of convergence also exist: all camps wish to avoid chaos, rebuild the state, and respond to the expectations of an exhausted population. CARICOM now offers a structuring framework for this approach. However, Haitian actors must have the courage to overcome their rivalries to collectively build a common political foundation, capable of restoring order, legitimacy, and hope. By Gesly Sinvilier