The Trump – Poilievre Duo and the Threat to Haiti

Pierre Poilievre's name remains unknown to many Haitians. Few know who he is or what role he plays in the Canadian political sphere. Recently at the helm of the Conservative Party of Canada, Poilievre is now seen as the main rival capable of unseating Justin Trudeau from his post as Prime Minister at Rideau Hall. Although Canada is not yet in an election period, a general election could be triggered at any time.

At first glance, it might seem that this political dynamic is far removed from our concerns. However, a deeper analysis shows that it is imperative for us to pay similar attention to it as we do to American presidential elections.

As our country navigates one of the most severe crises since the advent of representative democracy, Haiti depends more than ever on the support of its international partners. During his recent address at the United Nations tribune, the president of the Transitional Presidential Council once again emphasized the importance of international cooperation to extricate Haiti from its current impasse. Whether through donations, loans, or direct investments, international aid is essential to restore security, revive the economy, organize elections, and ensure the sustainability of our institutions.

Our main cooperation partners are, without a doubt, the United States and Canada. These two countries are at the forefront of financial contributors to the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Force. In other words, it is thanks to American and Canadian funding that Kenyan forces are deployed on the ground and that institutions like the Haitian National Police (PNH) and, to a lesser extent, the Haitian Armed Forces (FAD’H) receive aid to restore security in the country.

Recently, during a mission to the Bretton Woods institutions (a group of international economic organizations including the IMF and the World Bank), the discussion focused on assessing the damage caused by the crisis to the Haitian economy and its infrastructure, while estimating the cost of recovery. The United States and Canada are expected to be the main funders of a fund dedicated to this recovery. In other words, almost everything depends on the Americans and Canadians.

However, a worrying scenario is emerging. While Donald Trump, former President of the United States, is once again a candidate and could win the presidential election, Pierre Poilievre, also nicknamed the Canadian Donald Trump, could in turn defeat Justin Trudeau and become Canada's next Conservative Prime Minister. While it would be reductive to limit their policy towards Haiti to their public speeches, it is difficult to imagine that Donald Trump, strong from his first term, would show genuine goodwill towards Haiti. As for Poilievre, he remains discreet about his vision for Canadian foreign policy, and even more so about the position his potential government would adopt regarding Haiti, a subject that has never been addressed. One might also question the attention that Haitian authorities – whether the Transitional Presidential Council, the Prime Minister's Office, or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – pay to these crucial issues. But it is legitimate to wonder if a Canadian Conservative government would be as committed to Haiti as the current Liberal government.