Ukraine: Divergences for a Potential Peace, Diplomacy Under Strain

An unprecedented diplomatic movement appears to be underway regarding the peace plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. This weekend, European leaders held numerous consultations following the presentation of an American proposal, which was strongly contested in Brussels and several capitals. While a new momentum is recognized in the discussions, positions remain fragile and sometimes contradictory. The European Union Welcomes Renewed Momentum Following an informal meeting between European leaders, the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, stated that he perceived “a new momentum in the peace negotiations.” He emphasized the necessity that issues directly affecting the Union – whether sanctions, enlargement, or frozen Russian assets – be addressed with the full involvement of all protagonists. For her part, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed cautious optimism, believing that a solid basis now exists for progress, while also recalling that significant efforts still need to be made. Costa also indicated that he had spoken with Volodymyr Zelensky to obtain his assessment of the situation, stressing that a unified European position remains essential to ensure the coherence of the negotiations. Berlin Warns: No Peace Without Europe's Agreement German Chancellor Friedrich Merz insisted that any agreement affecting the security of the continent cannot come into being without the approval of the European Union. According to him, Europeans must participate at every stage of the process, particularly on aspects that directly concern their interests. While acknowledging the efforts made over several days to advance, Merz remains skeptical about the possibility of a decisive breakthrough this week. For Berlin, one condition remains essential: Russia's presence at the negotiating table. Without Moscow, no realistic agreement could emerge, he insisted. Nevertheless, despite the reservations expressed by its Chancellor, the German government welcomed the progress made in Geneva, where Americans, Ukrainians, and Europeans are meeting to try and modify the American plan. Berlin considers it positive that discussions are moving forward again and reiterates that, for the European Union, it is imperative that Ukraine's interests are fully taken into account and that nothing is decided on European issues without Europe's involvement. The German government states it is satisfied to note that this condition is now being met. Washington Under Pressure, Moscow Awaits The Kremlin, for its part, states that it has not received an official version of the modified proposal, while acknowledging that adjustments have been made. These discussions follow the ultimatum issued by Donald Trump, demanding that the Ukrainian president accept by November 27 a plan including several significant concessions to Moscow, notably territorial cessions, a significant reduction of the Ukrainian army, and a renunciation of NATO. Faced with criticism generated by this plan, including in the United States and within the Republican Party, Washington insists that the document is indeed of American design, while clarifying that it is by no means definitive. A Consolidated European Counter-Proposal Europeans, notably France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, have submitted a modified version of the American plan. Their document retains the initial points while proposing several revisions aimed at correcting aspects deemed too favorable to Moscow. This version notably provides for a ceiling of 800,000 soldiers for the Ukrainian armed forces in peacetime, instead of the 600,000 suggested by Washington. It also removes any mention of a constitutional obligation for Kyiv to renounce NATO and stipulates that future territorial discussions will be based on the current line of contact rather than endorsing areas as “de facto Russian.” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, for her part, believes it is not necessary to draft a completely new counter-proposal, judging that many elements of the American plan can serve as a basis, provided certain key points are clarified. Macron, Zelensky, Rubio, and Yermak Increase Consultations In parallel with official discussions, several bilateral exchanges continue in an attempt to harmonize positions. Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky have spoken to coordinate European efforts within the framework of the negotiations. In Geneva, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak also welcomed what they described as one of the most productive meetings since the launch of this process. For his part, Donald Trump spoke with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to reaffirm their desire to work together to achieve lasting peace. Turkey Relaunches its Mediation Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he would speak with Vladimir Putin to discuss peace efforts. He reaffirmed Turkey's intention to play an active role in creating a credible diplomatic channel and indicated that he would share the results of this exchange with European, American, and Ukrainian partners. A Decisive Moment, But a Long Road Ahead Between political pressures, internal divergences, and contradictory demands, the search for a compromise remains extremely complex. For the first time in a long while, however, several Western actors acknowledge the existence of tangible progress. The European Union now intends to assert its central role in this process, refusing to allow an agreement to be drafted without its involvement. Ukraine awaits a solid framework guaranteeing its sovereignty, security, and international recognition, while Russia will have to decide whether or not it wishes to participate in the ongoing dynamic. The capacity of this new diplomatic momentum to transform into a real step towards peace will largely depend on this decision.