A 'Robust Force' Against Gangs: Certain Hope or Diplomatic Mirage?

Port-au-Prince / New York – With the mandate of the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM) set to expire in a few days, the international community is striving to find a solution to Haiti's security impasse. The United States and Panama have submitted a resolution to the UN Security Council aiming to transform this mission into a Gang Repression Force (GRF), larger, better equipped, and with a binding mandate under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.

However, between the announced vetoes from China and Russia, the chronic weakness of UN funding, doubts about Haitian governance, and the successive failures of previous UN missions in Haiti, the success of such a project remains highly uncertain.

The MSSM (Multinational Security Support Mission), deployed for 15 months, has secured the international airport and reopened certain strategic road axes, according to President William Ruto. However, it operates at only 40% of its capacity, insists Kenyan President William Ruto. Fewer than 1,000 police officers are present out of the 2,500 planned, and funding relies on voluntary contributions, a precarious model that slows down any action.

The American proposal aims to scale up: a force of 5,500 members, a UN logistics chain, and a still vague mandate, which many hope will be to « dismantle gangs and secure essential infrastructure ».

But this transformation requires a Security Council resolution, where Moscow and Beijing critically view Western interference and the precedent of armed interventions in the Caribbean.

The history of peacekeeping operations in Haiti, from MINUSTAH (2004-2017) to the current BINUH, also fuels reluctance: accusations of abuse, a cholera epidemic introduced by peacekeepers, and a popular feeling of « foreign tutelage ».

On the ground, Canada is the first partner to announce a concrete commitment: 60 million dollars, including 40 million for the MSSM (Multinational Security Support Mission) or its successor and 20 million for Caribbean maritime security. A gesture hailed as « the only immediate positive outcome » of Laurent Saint-Cyr's diplomatic meetings in New York, according to political scientist Joseph Harold Pierre on the show Invité du Jour on Vision 2000.

However, this funding remains modest compared to estimated needs: according to the same analyst, a truly deterrent force should comprise between 13,000 to 20,000 members, equipped with heavy weapons and equipment, and benefit from a clear UN mandate and a mandatory budget.

Yet, voluntary contributions are becoming scarcer: the UN's global humanitarian aid budget has decreased from 8.5 to 5.6 billion dollars in fifteen years, and personnel has been halved.

The figures paint a dramatic picture: 1.3 million internally displaced persons, over 4,000 homicides since January, and a capital where over 90% of the territory is beyond state control. In certain areas, gangs impose their own « governance » as in Carrefour, Bel-Air, Canaan, or even Mirebalais, while hunger places Haiti among the five countries most exposed to global famine.