Haitian Crisis: Will Authorities Be Able to Organize Elections in 2025?

Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haiti has been plunged into deep instability, marked by the absence of elections and contested governance. Indeed, since the first Monday of January 2023, the date marking the end of the mandate of the remaining third of the Senate, the country has no elected officials in office. Haiti has been experiencing an institutional deadlock for several years. The absence of an elected president and the dysfunction of Parliament have contributed to weakening the state. Successive transitional governments have all struggled to establish a climate conducive to holding elections. The political class is fragmented, and distrust among national actors makes consensus on a viable electoral calendar difficult. During several media appearances, the president of the presidential council, Leslie Voltaire, nevertheless reaffirmed the transitional authorities' desire to organize elections to renew the country's political personnel during 2025. While it is true that organizing elections in Haiti in 2025 appears to be a major challenge for restoring the legitimacy of institutions and stabilizing a country grappling with a persistent political and security crisis, it is crucial to assess the feasibility of such a project. Will Haitian authorities be able to hold credible elections in the current context of the Haitian crisis? GROWING INSECURITY AND AN INADEQUATE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK The rise of armed gangs is one of the main obstacles to organizing elections in 2025. More than 80% of the capital is reportedly under the control of criminal groups, making it impossible to set up polling stations in many areas. Violence, kidnappings, and the difficulty for security forces to be effective compromise citizens' right to vote freely and safely. Moreover, it should be noted that the two departments with the highest voter turnout (nearly 60%) are the most affected by insecurity, namely Ouest and Artibonite. How can one claim credible elections with only 40% of the Haitian electorate? The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP), responsible for organizing elections, suffers from a lack of legitimacy and a lack of consensus around its composition, which prevents any significant progress. Furthermore, the absence of clear electoral reform accepted by the various political actors limits the credibility of any potential electoral process. Organizing elections also requires considerable resources in terms of logistics, training of electoral agents, and securing polling stations. However, Haiti severely lacks financial and technical resources to guarantee a transparent and inclusive ballot. Moreover, blockades on national roads and at the Airport can hinder free movement and communication between departments, particularly for facilitating the deployment of security forces in different regions of the country. Support from the international community could prove decisive in overcoming these challenges. However – and it must be emphasized – external interventions are often viewed with suspicion by a large part of the Haitian population, who denounce interference and excessive influence from foreign powers. The challenge will therefore be to balance international aid with an approach respectful of Haitian sovereignty. As for the will of the Haitian authorities, while they regularly express their intention to organize elections, the absence of concrete measures casts doubt on a genuine desire to achieve a ballot in 2025. The question of political transition and the guarantees to be offered to the various forces involved remains a major source of tension. The question of possible scenarios for 2025 then deserves to be studied. On one hand, an optimistic projection would determine that a political agreement would be found to restructure the CEP, establish an electoral calendar, and ensure a minimum of security, with sufficient logistical and financial support to overcome technical obstacles. For this to happen, all political actors would need to set aside their personal interests for the benefit of the collective interest. On the other hand, the absence of security and institutional improvements would lead to a postponement of elections to a later date, prolonging the political crisis and risking an aggravation of popular distrust towards the authorities. WHAT ALTERNATIVE TO BREAK THE DEADLOCK? Faced with the deadlock, some actors might advocate for a political transition with a less complex governance model, other than that of the CPT, facilitating better decision-making and better adapted to the Haitian context, responsible for preparing the necessary conditions for credible elections in a more distant future. Ultimately, the organization of elections in Haiti in 2025 will depend on several factors: improved security, the restructuring of electoral institutions, and the political will of the authorities. While some signs of progress exist, numerous obstacles remain and could force another postponement of the ballot. To avoid a prolongation of instability, an inclusive national dialogue and real, dynamic international support will be essential to lay the groundwork for a credible electoral process accepted by all.